Reference

Numbers 32:20

And Moses said unto them, If ye will do this thing, if ye will go armed before the Lord to war,
18

We will not return unto our houses, until the children of Israel have inherited every man his inheritance.

19

For we will not inherit with them on yonder side Jordan, or forward; because our inheritance is fallen to us on this side Jordan eastward.

20

And Moses said unto them, If ye will do this thing, if ye will go armed before the Lord to war,

21

And will go all of you armed over Jordan before the Lord, until he hath driven out his enemies from before him,

22

And the land be subdued before the Lord: then afterward ye shall return, and be guiltless before the Lord, and before Israel; and this land shall be your possession before the Lord.

Counter-Arguments

The strongest case that this verse does not belong in this theme.

Israel-Specific Promises

The verse describes a condition for a future action ("If ye will do this thing..."), not a promise, prophecy, or covenant. Furthermore, the "them" to whom Moses is speaking is not explicitly identified as "ethnic Israel" in this single verse, but rather a specific group within the larger Israelite community.